The Central Statistics Agency has recorded Q2 economic growth of 5.18 percent, for overall first half economic growth of 5.04 percent. This achievement is higher than forecasts made by Bank Indonesia and several economists. This means that 5.2 percent growth by year end is quite possible.
BPS Chief Suryamin said this year’s Q2 growth was highest for two years (4.96 percent in 2014, and 4.66 percent in 2015). By quarter, Q2 economic growth was up 4.02 percent on the figure for Q2. This is the highest quarterly growth in the past two years (4 percent in Q1-Q2 2014, and 3.75 percent in Q1-Q2 2015).
The 5.04 percent growth recorded in the first semester of 2016 was also higher than the 4.7 percent recorded in the same period last year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo had projected economic growth in Q2 of 2016 of 4.49 percent and first half growth of just 4.93 percent.
(Also read: BI Records Economic Growth of Just 4.93 percent in First Half of 2016)
Likewise, Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) economist Gundy Cahyadi and Samual Asset Management economist Lana Soelistianingsih, both predicted economic growth of 5 percent in Q2 and first half growth of 4.96 percent.
Even Bank Mandiri chief economist Anton Gunawan and Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede said Q2 economic growth would only be 4.9 percent.
According to Suryamin, events in and out of the country boosted Q2 economic growth, including a shift in the timing of the main harvest, which took place in April and May this year. “The agricultural sector dominated after el-Nino.The harvest season shifted from Q1 to Q2. That affected sales, and trade,” Suryamin said at a press conference on Q2 economic growth at the BPS office in Jakarta, Friday (5/8).
(Also read: Government Confident of Good Economic Growth despite Spending Cut Backs)
Another event was increased car production in Q2, to 316,351 units, or 10.96 percent higher than the previous quarter and 13.36 percent higher year-on-year. Similarly, cement production was up 3.34 percent on Q1 to 14.4 million tons, and 7.82 percent year-on-year.
This indicates an increase in public consumption, which is reflected in economic growth in terms of household spending, which grew 5.04 percent in Q2 and was up 1.28 percent upon the previous quarter.
Third was the decrease in the BI rate in March-June, which affected the business sector as lower interest rates stimulated private investment. (Read: Darmin: Confidence in the Economic Team Growing)
The fourth event was the IDR 474.28 trillion government spending in Q2, up from IDR 384.74 trillion the same period last year. Government spending grew 6.28 percent in Q2 of this year. Compared the previous quarter, government spending was up 36.16 percent.