Electability Trends Threaten Jokowi’s Chances of Winning

Penulis: Safrezi Fitra

Editor: Safrezi Fitra

1/12/2018, 16.00 WIB

Jokowi-Ma'ruf’s electability decreases. Surveys from three institutions showed the electability is still below the safe limit of 60 percent for incumbent.

Telaah - Pilpres

The survey results from a number of institutions showed the president-vice president candidate pair number 01, Joko Widodo and Ma’ruf Amin, still have a higher electability level than Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno. However, the trend is declining compared to the results of previous surveys. This will affect Jokowi’s chances of winning as incumbent.

Based on a survey conducted by Indikator Politik Indonesia from February to September 2018, the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair experienced a downward trend in electability. In February 2018, Jokowi’s electability was 61.8 percent. A month later, it dropped to 60.6 percent. His electability fell by 59.9 percent in July 2018, and fell again to 57 percent in the September survey.

Despite declining, the number of votes for the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair is still high compared to their rival pair in the 2019 Presidential Election, Prabowo-Sandi. In the September survey, the number of votes for Jokowi-Ma’ruf was still 25.4 percent higher than the votes for Prabowo-Sandiaga, which reached 32.3 percent. Meanwhile, 10 percent of respondents said they would not vote and did not answer questions in the survey.

“The electability of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is high, but it is still in the unsafe category, considering the presidential election is still seven months away,” said Indikator Politik Indonesia Executive Director Burhanuddin Muhtadi at his office in Jakarta, Wednesday (9/26).

According to him, there is a possibility that voters will switch support ahead of the presidential election. Up to now, there are still 4.6 percent of respondents who are very likely to change their support for the 2019 Presidential Election. About 20.4 percent of respondents said there is a high probability for them to change their choices.

On the other hand, Prabowo’s electability trend tended to rise and fall over the same period. Based on Indikator’s survey in February 2018, his electability was 29.4 percent. The number of votes for Prabowo decreased to 29 percent in March 2018 and increased to 32.1 percent in July 2018. However, it then fell by 0.8 percent in the September survey.

National Survey Media (Median), another institution that released its survey results on 16 November, showed that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability was 47.7 percent. The difference was only 12.2 percent compared to the number of votes for the Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno pair, which reached 35.5 percent. In this survey, about 16.8 percent of respondents stated that they had not made a choice.

The electability of incumbent, with a difference that is not too high with the Prabowo-Sandi pair, needs to be used as an evaluation for Jokowi-Ma’ruf. “This means that Prabowo can still equalize the advantages if he want to pursue,” Rico said during a press conference in Jakarta, Tuesday (11/27).

In the Median survey, the respondents’ attention were centred on several things such as the economy and poverty (26.2 percent), employment (9.4 percent), basic food prices (7.7 percent), and state debt (1.6 percent), foreign labour (1.2 percent), increase in fuel prices (1 percent), rupiah stability (0.7 percent), electricity subsidy (0.5 percent), social assistance that was not right on target (0.3 percent), and regional minimum wage (0.2 percent).

The survey also showed that the number of respondents who mentioned the flaws of Jokowi’s administration had increased to 58.5 percent. The incumbent’s top five flaws were the deterioration of the economy, the high price of basic food, fuel and electricity, the development that has not been evenly distributed (3 percent), the high number of legal cases against Islamic scholars (2.4 percent), and social assistance that was not right on target (2.2 percent).

Meanwhile, the number of respondents who mentioned Jokowi’ achievements was only 47.6 percent. The top five achievements were infrastructure development, social assistance that was right on target, health, education, and stable economy.

Regarding economic issues, the survey from Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA showed different results. About 70.3 percent of respondents stated that the current economic condition is still in the good and moderate category. Only 24.7 percent of respondents stated that Indonesia’s current economic condition has deteriorated, while the other 5 percent said they did not know or did not answer the questions in the survey.

LSI noted that the electability of Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin reached 53.2 percent, which was higher than the electability of Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno at 31.2 percent. The Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair got the advantage because the majority of voters saw stable economic conditions.

“In the two months of the campaign period, Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability was stable above 20 percent against Prabowo-Sandi,” LSI Denny JA Researcher Ardian Sopa said in Jakarta, Tuesday (11/27). In this survey, 15.6 percent of respondents did not make their choice.

Some policies to be issued by Jokowi also have the potential to reduce his electability in the 2019 Presidential Election, one of which is the relaxation of the Negative Investment List (DNI). In this policy, the government will open 54 business sectors for foreigners. Chairman of the House of Representatives (DPR) Bambang Soesatyo admitted that he had received many complaints from the public.

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